As the European Union revises its Arctic Strategy, it faces a familiar political dilemma: how to balance energy security concerns with climate commitments. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calls for expanding domestic fossil fuel production have grown louder. In that context, new development of Arctic oil and gas is framed as a pragmatic response to geopolitical instability and energy dependence.
But this framing deserves closer scrutiny.
Arctic oil and gas projects are not quick fixes to Europe’s current energy challenges. On the Norwegian continental shelf, fossil fuel developments already have average lead times of around thirteen years, while projects in the Barents Sea north of the Arctic Circle are likely to take even longer due to harsh weather conditions, limited infrastructure, and high costs. New Arctic fields would therefore be unlikely to supply Europe with energy before the 2040s.
This creates a striking contradiction. Arctic oil is justified through the language of urgency and energy security, yet it cannot meaningfully address Europe’s immediate energy needs.
At the same time, the European Union has committed itself to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 90 percent by 2040, at which point today’s gas infrastructure in Norway, the UK, and the EU will be sufficient to cover EU’s demand. Investing in large-scale fossil fuel infrastructure with very long timelines risks locking Europe into continued dependence on fossil fuels precisely when it is attempting to transition away from them.
The environmental risks are also significant. The Arctic contains some of the world’s most fragile ecosystems and is warming nearly four times faster than the global average.[1] Oil spills in polar conditions characterized by darkness, fog, rough seas, and freezing temperatures are exceptionally difficult to contain and clean up. Prevention matters precisely because response capacity in these environments remains deeply uncertain.
The geopolitical argument for Arctic fossil fuel expansion also contains its own paradoxes. Expanding offshore oil and gas infrastructure close to Russian territory also means expanding the amount of critical infrastructure vulnerable to sabotage, hybrid attacks, and geopolitical instability.
In particular, Norwegian oil interests lobby the European Union to lift its moratorium on Arctic oil and gas. They frame fossil fuel expansion as the realistic and responsible option. However, the lesson drawn from the current geopolitical unrest should be to question these assumptions. If energy security becomes synonymous with expanding fossil fuel infrastructure, Europe risks reproducing the very dependencies and insecurities it seeks to escape.
That is why this debate cannot be left to fossil fuel interests alone.
We at ActionAid Denmark’s Nordic Center for Sustainable Finance took the initiative to mobilize signatories for an open letter urging the European Commission to maintain and strengthen its moratorium on Arctic oil and gas expansion. We collaborated closely with the Danish pension fund, Sampension, to gather support. Today, more than 125 signatories have joined our call, including 12 financial institutions representing more than 650 billion EUR, almost 80 academics and leading experts, as well as businesses, trade unions, NGOs, think tanks, and public figures. The letter was covered by several media outlets, including Reuters and Bloomberg. We continue to gather even further support for our call, as more voices are needed in this important discussion about what kind of energy future Europe chooses to pursue and how we protect globally significant ecosystems.
[1] Daniele Codato et al., “Unburnable Carbon in the Rapidly Warming Arctic: Mapping Spatial Relationships among Oil and Gas Development, Ecologically Sensitive Areas and Indigenous Peoples’ Lands,” PLOS One 21, no. 4 (2026): e0345775.
*Cover image: Protest against oil drilling operations by Austrian OMV in the Arctic Ocean near Bear Island in the Barents Sea during winter. Credit: Mitja Kobal / Greenpeace, used with permission.
[Cover image description: A protest sign against oil drilling is placed in the Barents Sea near the OMV drilling platform.]
